RESEARCH BY GLOBAL INFO ANALYTICS IS INACCURATE; DR AKOTO STANDS A GREATER CHANCE OF VICTORY

By Let Truth Be Told Alliance (L.T.B.T.A.)

I have come across a survey conducted by Global Info Analytics stating that the NPP Presidential polls on November 4 is a two horse race between Presidential Aspirants, Mahamudu Bawumia and Ken Ohene Agyapong, and Bawumia will win the polls.

Opinion polls are just not an assessment of public opinion by questioning a representative sample, especially as the basis for forecasting the results of voting but also a scientific approach to assess public opinion to know the possible outcome of the reality.

After every research, the outcome compared to the reality should be (+) or (-)  5% but as usual, Global Info Analytics surveys never give credence to the dos and don'ts of a research.

For any quantitative analysis like opinion polls, a good maximum sample size of any quantitative is usually around 10% of the population. For example, in a population of 5000, 10% would be 500.

With smaller population, most researchers agree that the minimum sample size to get any kind of meaningful result is 100. If your population is less than 100 then you really need to survey all of them.

Analyzing the opinion poll critically, it's evident that Global Info Analytics' prediction that Aspirant Bawumia will win is inaccurate when considering the sample size. When more than 200,000 people are expected to vote, a 2% sample size, as used in the survey, is insufficient and lacks scientific validity.

In the case of the NPP Presidential Polls on November 4, about 210,000 voters are expected to vote across 275 Constituencies, including special centers for Regional, National, and Reps from the Diaspora. In this context, the average sample size should be 10,000 or more, representing 10% of the entire population. Global Info Analytics, however, chose just 4,311 people from the 210,000, which represents approximately 1.5% to 2%, and is not scientifically sound.

It is evident that when it comes to NPP Presidential Polls, Global Info Analytics has a history of inaccurate predictions. Their previous predictions did not align with the actual outcomes of the elections; way before the super delegates conference, they opined that Alan Kyerematen will win by 54%, followed by Mahamudu Bawumia with 46% and Ken Agyapong representing 21%, in that same time they again predicted 45% for Alan, 55% for Bawumia, Ken placing third within NPP.

Prior to the Super Delegates Conference, they conducted another survey stating that Bawumia will lead with 36%, Alan (33.3%), Ken (24.8%), Kwabena Agyei Agyapong (1.5%) and Akoto (1.3%).

At the end of the Super Delegates Conference, their predictions were totally wrong; positions  of aspirants changed; Mahamudu Bawumia was first with approximately 67%, Ken Agyapong (14%), Alan Kyerematen (10%), Afriyie Akoto (4%), Boakye Agyarko and Addai- Nimoh ties with 1%. Comparing the outcome of the elections to the opinion poll by Global Info Analytics is totally different; percentages mismatched, positions totally wrong and outcome wholesomely different.

Any personality or entity that conduct a survey and places Addai- Nimoh over Afriyie Akoto whilst Akoto polled four times more than Nimoh's votes in the Super Delegates Conference ought not to be taken seriously but should be trashed.

Considering the dynamics of the NPP Presidential Polls, with over 55% of the voters being farmers and again a good number of them also into partial farming activities, it is likely that Afriyie Akoto, who performed well at the Food and Agriculture Ministry and is perceived as a Party man, will lead after Akufo-Addo. Delegates seem to have embraced his vision for the Party and Ghana.

On this note, it is not too late for Global Info Analytics to go and conduct another survey; more scientifically rigorous and genuine, not biased to make them a bit credible for the first time.

SeLaH!!!

Cc: 

Nana Yaw Boakye Yiadom Opoku Agyemang (N.Y.B.Y.O.A.)

+233243065430

Collins Sah

+233243459237

Stephen Nana Boakye

+233550308147